newThe finance playbook

What does this product actually make you?

Put in what you know. Get the real margin, your break-even, and whether your ads are profitable — with plain guidance on each line.

Your numbers
The product
$
$
$
Costs that scale with the sale
%
Card and gateway fees. US-typical is about 3%. Edit if you know yours.
%
Refunds plus the average discount given. Fashion runs high; consumables run low.
Acquisition
$
Total ad spend divided by new orders. Not the platform's reported CPA, which flatters you.
$
Defaults to your selling price. Set higher if customers usually buy more than one item.
Repeat & lifetime value
No problem. I will model lifetime value from your repeat rate and margin, and label every lifetime number as an estimate.
%
Of 100 new customers, how many ever order a second time.
On top of the first order, within a year. 1.5 is a reasonable mixed default.


Dashed fields are assumptions you can and should replace with your real numbers. Nothing is saved or sent anywhere.
Profitable on the first order
Every new order makes you $9.
Your gross profit clears your ad cost on the very first purchase. You can scale on first-order economics alone, before any repeat business. That is the strongest position to be in.
Real gross margin
Healthy44%
$44 kept on a $100 order
Product cost $30Shipping + fulfilment $15Transaction fee $3Returns + discounts $8Gross profit kept $44

Your product margin looks like 70%, but once every cost to deliver the order is loaded on, the real figure is 44%. That 26% gap is the number most brands miss.

Break-even ROAS
2.27x
break-even CAC $44 · 1 ÷ 44%

Any campaign reporting below 2.27x is losing money, and any customer costing more than $44 to acquire is unprofitable on the first order. This is your floor.

First-order contribution
Profitable$9
gross profit $44 − CAC $35

After paying $35 to acquire the order, you keep $9. CAC only means something against this number, never on its own.

Lifetime gross profit to CAC
estimated
90-day
1.47x
Fragile
180-day
1.59x
Fragile

At 1.47x by day 90, this works only if your retention is genuinely strong. Most people overrate their retention. Scale cautiously and watch the 180-day figure climb before committing more budget.

How this estimate is built

Lifetime gross profit = first-order gross profit plus modelled repeat profit (your repeat rate × extra orders × margin), time-boxed so roughly 45% of annual repeat profit is counted by 90 days and 70% by 180. It is a planning estimate. Replace it with your real cohort gross profit the moment you have it, using the toggle above.

Discount impact0% off
Margin left
$44
Break-even ROAS
2.27x

Drag the slider. Your costs barely move when you discount, so the margin you give away comes almost entirely out of profit, and your required efficiency climbs fast.